Gilder and Moore – Impact on the Future of Computing

The principles of both Gilder and Moore are important phenomena that must be considered juxtaposed to Grid Computing infrastructure in new e-Science research. Moore’s Law predicts doubling silicon density every 18 months. In early 2000, a common misconception held that traffic was doubling every three months. Andrew Odlyzko and Kerry Coffman showed that this was not the case. He demonstrated that traffic has been approximately doubling every 12 months since 1997 based on progress in optical bandwidth. Gilder’s Law predicts that the total capacity of optical transport systems doubles every six months. New developments seem to confirm that optical transport bandwidth availability doubles every nine months.